Stupidest

Various discussions have surrounded Malaysia’s Budget 2027, tabled over a week ago by the Minister of Finance and Malaysia’s Prime Minister. We need to understand the basis of our fiscal crisis that “revenue streams do not cover spending as reflected in our overall government performance.”

Some say it is the huge debts the government inherited from the previous “problematic” government. Others say it’s the so-called legacy of inefficiency and a “lack of meritocracy” in the public service. You can analyze the problems until the cows come home. Still, Malaysia’s problem isn’t necessarily inefficiency tied to a particular race, religion, or location, or solely due to corruption, which can occur anywhere in the world, regardless of race, religion, or location. The main problem is the way we play our political game since the 1998 financial crisis.

Since November 24, 2022, this country has been peaceful, with no street protests or demonstrations. No protests have had more than 1,000 participants since Anwar Ibrahim became Prime Minister of Malaysia. That is a very peaceful economy, I must say. No one has protested due to price hikes, unemployment, influx of refugees, crime rates, quality of education, or anything at all.

According to my Gemini Pro Super Intelligence (or AI), there were over 20 mega-scale demonstrations from 1998 until Anwar became the Prime Minister. Those popular mega protests are:

September 20, 1998 — The Merdeka Square Mass Rally,

1998–1999 — Post-Arrest & “Black Eye” Street Demonstrations,

April 14, 1999 — Post-Sentencing Protests,

November 10, 2007 — BERSIH 1 Rally,

November 25, 2007 — HINDRAF Rally,

July 9, 2011 — BERSIH 2.0 Rally,

April 28, 2012 — BERSIH 3.0 (“Duduk Bantah”),

August 29–30, 2015 — BERSIH 4 Rally,

July 6, 2008 — Anti-Fuel Price Hike Rallies,

March 7, 2009 — Anti-ISA Rally,

May–June 2013 — Black-Out/Black 505 Rallies,

March 7, 2015 — #KitaLawan Rally,

October 14, 2017 — Sayangi Malaysia, Hapuskan Kleptokrasi Rally,

August 2, 2021 — Opposition MPs March to Parliament,

and July 2022 — Turun Rallies (Anti-Inflation/Cost of Living).

All these major rallies drew at least 100k protestors, as they involved NGOs and activist movements nationwide.

Apart from the above rallies, Super Intelligence, the Gemini Pro told me that there were also around 100 regional and medium-sized rallies across the country, and over 1000 smaller demonstrations throughout the country between 1998 and 2022, organized by parties, NGOs, and activist movements associated with Anwar Ibrahim and his allies during the period. Clearly, the very party that understands and can incite hatred, anger, and rally the masses towards becoming anti-government or anti-establishment is none other than the very party that is leading the government today.

It’s no wonder there are no rallies or demonstrations when he is in power. If there were protests at all, they are held in closed areas, such as the Axiata Stadium, where the so-called NGOs protested against the Zionist cruelty towards Gaza and Palestine several times between 2022 and the present day, when he was invited to give speeches.

As a result, the current government faces no political challenge to its stability, compared to the era when he was ostracized and in the opposition. The slogan “Lawan Tetap Lawan” is deliberately vague. Still, most people interpret the movement as an effort to topple the long-standing giant of Malaysian politics, the Barisan Nasional (BN), formerly known as Perikatan Nasional during the era of independence. Basically, the party he used to love so much, as he was part of UMNO’s leadership before his sacking, turned out to be the most evil party he knew, as he declared it full of corruptors or “penyakau.”

Imagine if Anwar Ibrahim became Prime Minister immediately after Tun Dr. Mahathir’s retirement in 2003, instead of Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. Do you think there would be any street protests? Even if there were issues, the government would handle them swiftly, and Anwar Ibrahim would never see street protests trying to topple his government, theoretically, as the BN prime minister instead of PKR. Given that BN was the pro-nationalist, pro-capitalist party within the democratic environment, it was unlikely that PMX could change those policies so drastically; so he would likely continue them until he passed the baton to other Malay leaders from UMNO.

According to Gemini Pro, PETRONAS paid approximately RM1.1 trillion to RM1.2 trillion in dividends and taxes to the Malaysian government from 1998 until 2022, thanks to the strong performance of crude prices and the efficiency of PETRONAS management, but as claimed by Anwar Ibrahim, the government “was not able to perform” due to the “sakau” environment created by the previous government. He offered no other reasons for the government’s below-par performance at the time, beyond accusation after accusation, until the final breakthrough when Datuk Seri Najib was found to be involved in the international 1MDB scandal, triggered by the massive involvement of the fugitive scammer, popularly known as Jho Low “the Bear,” or in Malay, Jho Low “Berwang,” which indirectly means Jho Low who “has a lot of stolen public cash.”

Despite being a Penangite, Jho the Bear Low remains Malaysia’s number one public enemy. Yet, he is still at large, roaming freely anywhere on earth, perhaps happily eating ice cream, while I write this. Weirdly strange, in 2019, some high officials claimed a plastic surgeon had “reformed him” and turned him into a panda polar bear (not dollar). Slowly but surely, the masses will forget his name because no one ever rallied them to voice out and cry foul that the government never tried very hard to bring Jho Low back to face justice in Malaysia, and no one even cared. Do you notice that?

But look at how the current MADANI government led by Anwar Ibrahim, tries to label UMNO BN, the party his parents were traditionally part of, as a party full of “penyakau” or “corruptors.” Although the accusation may be partly true given DS Najib’s unfortunate fate in the SRC case, the current opposition, mostly from PAS, is making similar accusation against the current government, citing a “corporate mafia revelation” by Datuk Seri Rafizi from BERSAMA. But PKR is clearly politically experienced at quickly diverting that negative vibe and attention towards BN instead. How convenient!

We all know that the government institutions or establishments any ruling party leads are staffed by the same public service officers and employees as any other ruling party, regardless of who won the general election. They will be the same people, and perhaps they are the ones who made the call; or, as Donald Trump said, in the US, the country is run by the “deep state.”

In the United States, the term “deep state” refers to a clandestine, permanent network of unelected government officials, intelligence agencies, military leaders, and civil servants who operate independently of democratically elected leaders to influence or dictate national policy. Perhaps these are the real culprits behind the “sakau-menyakau,” rather than the political leaders who mostly work toward the sweetness of the so-called position and power. Indeed, politics is about seeking and “winning attention” from the masses. A huge standing ovation can mean a lot to a politician, but serving the public without any attention given might require patience and honesty, especially when their salary grows very little compared to business or private-sector roles.

This means the same government Anwar served in before his sacking is also the establishment he now leads as Prime Minister. When he was part of the previous government before his sacking, the government’s operations and administration were funded mostly by PETRONAS contributions, which, between 1974 and 1998, generated about RM450 billion in dividends and tax revenue (based on today’s value of money) from Malaysia’s only Fortune 500 corporation. Despite PETRONAS’s smaller contribution over the 25 years from 1973 to 1998, the government built a lot of infrastructure, such as hospitals, schools, universities, roads, and highways.

Yet, public services today perform just merely at the level similar to what previous governments had achieved, despite improvements in the so-called “tatakelola,” because in the real management, culture change depends mostly on individual behavior, and not necessarily solely dependent on the effectiveness of a system, work process or “governance.” As a comparison, during the era of the Prophet, “governance” to guide the ummah was the Quran and Sunnah, and his companions at the time followed the guidelines set by the Prophet through divine revelation. Over time, these guidelines evolved into processes and procedures shaped by human inputs and experiences from other civilisations or organizations. Eventually, the guidelines become merely academic protocols, where real results depend on human behavior, where complete cultural change should require proper education, rigorous training, and, more importantly, the “will to change.”

I must say that the government’s apparent inefficiency is not solely due to corruption at all levels within government institutions and the political realm. It is probably because leaders within the establishment at that time had ‘to manage so much noise from 1998 until 2022’, with constant bickering and infighting among Malaysian political actors, so much so that it did not attract quality investors to Malaysia, and they had to spend more than they earned from the revenue streams.

In my previous articles, I explained that when I studied in Japan between 1997 and 2002, I saw how the Japanese viewed Malaysia through the lens of foreign investors. They see Malaysia as a bad place to go, with riots after riots and drama after drama, mostly instigated by the very person enjoying his life as Malaysia’s current Prime Minister, popularly known as PMX today. Anwar Ibrahim is the only person in Malaysia, or probably in the whole world, with the capacity, capability, talent, and strong persistence to rally the masses of people toward a common goal, as long as it serves his interests. You can hate him or love him, but he is a rare leader with that energy and spirit. Che Guevara might envy his capability, and Sukarno might feel someone else has the talent he once had.

We are not so sure whether his behavior is driven by principle or personal ambition. Still, his capability is dangerous when he was out of power, and perhaps even more dangerous when he is in power. Tun Dr. Mahathir once said in 1998 that “Anwar could not wait. He wanted to succeed me as soon as possible. He was in a hurry to become Prime Minister,” and again in the same year during a press conference that “he thought that because of the economic crisis, the people would turn against me and he could ride on that wave to become the Prime Minister immediately.” In the memoir, Tun said that “Anwar was too ambitious and in a hurry. He couldn’t wait for his turn. He was mobilizing his supporters to challenge me before the time was right.”

When personal ambition has pushed the country’s economy to its limit, where the establishment and ruling party had to maneuver the government to its defense, while he was not backing down, it is actually an example of “marahkan nyamuk, habis kelambu dibakar,” or “cutting off your nose to spite your face.” Anwar Ibrahim’s rise to his current pinnacle is full of drama and controversy. Still, more importantly, he treats many heads and bodies of his followers as mere tools for his agenda. Perhaps, beyond this term, he will no longer be as eager to fight as he used to, because he has already achieved his personal dream, realizing his ambition. Having said that, no one knows how greedy anyone could be, once they have tasted the sweetness of power and influence in a country called Malaysia.

Malaysia is not short of talented leaders. PAS has several capable leaders with a similar style. Today’s leading opposition party, PAS, is truly passionate, with its own tradition of protesting and demonstrating too. For example, on issues like ICERD and Palestine, they too have rallied thousands of supporters, demonstrated on the street or at the Dataran Merdeka. However, PAS rarely garners much support unless Anwar Ibrahim uses PAS’ machinery to his advantage, like he used to. Anwar Ibrahim and his lieutenants can easily rally people to the streets, as they did recently when they mobilized nearly 300k Formula One supporters to attend the Bahrain GP in Sepang, Malaysia through social media promotion, paid advertisement, and online sensation. As Prime Minister, he has no match in the opposition and should be able to lead this country peacefully and efficiently.

Unfortunately, total debt has risen from just RM650 billion in 2017 to more than RM1.5 trillion in 2026. Although the absolute total debt continued to accumulate due to ongoing annual borrowing needs for development spending, the annual fiscal deficit as a share of GDP steadily narrowed under fiscal consolidation efforts, which is commendable (see below):

2022: Fiscal deficit was 5.6% of GDP (shortfall of ~RM99.5 billion).

2023: Fiscal deficit dropped to 5.0% of GDP (shortfall of ~RM91.4 billion).

2024: Fiscal deficit narrowed further to 4.1% of GDP (shortfall of ~RM84.3 billion).

2025: Fiscal deficit reduced to 3.7% of GDP (shortfall of ~RM80.5 billion).

2026 Target: Projected at 3.3% to 3.5% of GDP (shortfall of ~RM77.5 billion).

The current government, which I explained earlier, is expected to lead comfortably without protests or demonstrations, and seems to be performing quite reasonably, as expected. This is because the same public servants are still working tirelessly, as in the eras of BN, PH 1.0, Perikatan Nasional, and now PH 2.0. There is nothing really to be proud of, because no real policy changes can be claimed as a change off the course that would make Malaysia look different by 2050 or 2100. The public servants are still mostly Malay and Bumiputera public service officers and employees. They can still do their jobs not because policy has changed much, but because the current ruling party and political leaders are continuing or implementing mostly the same policies as the previous government, which had already proposed targeted subsidies, sustainability agenda, prudent fiscal, et cetera. Yet the bleeding wound left by past demonstrations and disruptions has never closed or healed, resulting in ongoing issues in this nation day after day, to this day.

For example, the BN government has already studied the impact of government spending, especially after the 1998-2001 financial crisis, when it needed to reduce overreliance on petroleum dividends and taxes. BN first proposed this in the 2005 budget and tabled it in 2009 to diversify tax revenue away from petroleum dependence, introducing the concept of Goods and Services Tax (GST). However, the government repeatedly postponed GST (due to blatant misinformation the opposition spread like wildfire back then) before finally implementing it at 6% in April 2015 under Prime Minister Najib Razak. At the time, GST mattered because the government knew it had to invest in infrastructure such as the MRT, highways, healthcare, schools, universities, and more. But the cabinet dismantled the whole GST structure immediately after PH 1.0 secured key ministries, such as Finance and Economy, from 2018 onwards, while hunting down “corrupt” BN leaders as they should be. Adding insult to injury, the COVID-19 mega disruption hit, and the whole nation stood still. Crude oil prices plunged, and the government had to borrow more funds to keep the administration running.

I knew back then, before 2022, that if we didn’t let Anwar become Prime Minister, he’d never know the impact of his own actions on the country he so fondly loves, if we really believe his own words (that he loves this country called Malaysia). Only Anwar Ibrahim himself should implement the entire “reform agenda” across the government machinery, institutions, agencies, and structures. He should never blame others, because he has done so (blaming others) for more than two decades. If someone graduated from the university in 1998, he has probably now retired, without any pension, struggling to pay his medical fees and healthcare, while seeing how his children and grandchildren suffer economically, probably ponders why he joined the Reformasi Mega protest on the street back then, being sprayed by the water cannon and inhaling a lot of gas agents.

Ironically, the present establishment, led by PKR, is inciting a similar level of hatred toward its ally in MADANI government, namely UMNO-BN, by propagating the same “reform agenda,” even though the very person who vented his anger at that party is now already in power, who has absolute control over the grip of the steer. His aim is vague at best, but damaging at worst.

One fine day, without him at the helm of Pakatan Harapan (PH), he probably wants his legacy as the “reformist” who keeps disrupting the peaceful establishment and turning it into chaos to be somehow followed by anyone of the so-called potential leaders from PKR’s students platforms at the local university, like the female student who has recently made the headline where she said: “The stupidest thing I have watched in my entire life is people donating to our former Prime Minister, Najib Razak, someone who clearly has a worldwide corruption case, 1MDB, and is clearly linked to corruption.”

It might seem heroic today (for her to be saying so), but if anyone in the future follows Anwar Ibrahim’s footsteps in the past, we may end up with a bankrupt Malaysia, latest by 2050. If you really ask me, the actual stupidest thing ever is being used as a tool for street protests, yet despite that sacrifice, after 20-plus years of protesting, you ended up stuck at where you are, live with nothing and your families ignored. When you look back with remorse and disappointment, you ask yourself: “why did I participate in all of those ‘stupidest‘ protests in the first place? I gain nothing out of it, except that I felt good that I kicked some enforcement agents butt and slept in the lock-up a few nights.”

Oh! How glad I am that I never did those things.

Although student protests, past and present, may create an anti-establishment, or anti-BN waves, they serve only Anwar Ibrahim’s ambition to defeat the ruling party at the time and remain in power today. Perhaps Ummi Umairah may have reached the pinnacle of his student activism career after receiving so much attention recently, yet there are still some other unlucky students throughout Anwar’s journey to becoming Prime Minister who were left out or failed miserably in their lives not only as students, but as young graduates, and they probably remain as unsung heroes, feeling disappointed towards themselves. Though I will not call them heroes, but from the point of view (POV) of PKR or PH supporters, these so-called “heroes” are nowhere to be found today. In fact, many of them are back with UMNO BN, because they originally thought that Anwar was fighting for the ideology of nationalism, trying to repair the ship they used to sail together, but later realized that it was not. Similarly, PAS members have often realized that Anwar’s agenda in using them, and therefore have since promised themselves: “never again!”

In closing, a strong economy rests on political stability and a strong national ideology. In Malaysia, nationalism, capitalism, and fair democracy are important to keep the nation’s future clear and free from confusion or vague leadership. The return of nationalism, blended with Islamic religious elements in the country’s leadership, will provide a strong foundation for reviving a new Malaysia with Malaysia’s original DNA and identity. Leaving this country in the hands of confusing elements and ideologies (such as liberalism, pluralism and socialism) will lead the whole population into disarray and disunity, as the satisfaction and confidence of the majority and core ethnic Malays and Bumiputeras must always be protected and nurtured for a sustainable economy.