Stratagem

In Malaysia today, five major Malay political parties shape the national landscape. Yet, it is the top three—PAS, UMNO, and PKR—that command the greatest influence over the direction of our country. My focus is on these three, as they hold the keys to determining the best grand strategy for Malays—one that serves the highest ideals of “agama, bangsa, dan negara,” or in clearer terms, Islam, the Malay-Bumiputera race, and Malaysia itself.

Why should I share my analysis about Malay parties in Malaysia openly? Because real progress demands collective support—especially from Malays and Bumiputeras—to ensure Malaysia not only moves forward but also achieves developed nation status within the next five years, or sooner if we rise to the challenge.

The top three most important Malay-based parties in Malaysia are Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party – PAS), United Malays National Organization (UMNO), and Parti Keadilan Nasional (National Justice Party – PKR).

PAS represents the far-right end of the political spectrum; it is conservative and holds the core beliefs and fundamental ideology of most Malays today, which is championing the religion of Islam. Some even say that PAS is the strongest and most formidable Islamist Party in the world today. If any political party can survive Malaysian political dynamics, it can survive any political challenge anywhere in the world.

PAS was officially formed on November 24, 1951, initially as Persatuan Islam Sa-Malaya (Pan-Malayan Islamic Union) in Jawi typography, which made it sound like “p-a-s”, during a gathering of “ulama” (religious scholars) in Butterworth, Penang. It predates Malaysia’s independence in 1957, making it one of the country’s oldest surviving political entities. Ironically, PAS traces its direct origins to religious scholars who were originally part of UMNO, the most dominant race-based party in the world. This Malay nationalist party led Malaysia for decades. They, the ulama from UMNO, broke away en masse to form an independent religious platform called PAS, because they felt UMNO was too “secular and nationalist” and “too soft towards former colonialists,” setting the stage for a decades-long rivalry for the Malay-Muslim vote in Malaysia.

Islam forms the very bedrock of PAS’s grassroots appeal. The party is known for attracting young Muslim scholars—“ustaz” and “ustazah”—many of whom are graduates of Al-Azhar University in Egypt, Yarmouk University in Jordan, or local Islamic institutions. As Malaysia progressed, PAS also drew in young Malay professionals from medicine, engineering, law, and accounting, especially from the 1970s onwards. These professionals, whether educated abroad or locally, brought fresh perspectives—often moderate in tone, but unwavering in their commitment to upholding Islamic principles at the heart of their political vision.

Interestingly, these young Muslim professionals not only return and join PAS, but they also join NGOs and even the party that the ulamas called “secular and nationalist,” such as UMNO, and they too have similar Islamist ideologies, but use different platforms to achieve their goals.

Then there is UMNO, the United Malays National Organisation—a party that has long anchored Malaysia’s centrist-nationalist ideology. Alongside the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) and Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC) under the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition, UMNO led the nation for decades until 2018. As the country’s main architect of stability and unity, UMNO’s role as custodian of Malay interests is pivotal. Its popularity among Malays surged after the 1969 race riots, when it spearheaded the New Economic Policy (NEP) in 1971. This affirmative action policy was designed to eradicate poverty and restructure society, empowering the Bumiputera and redefining Malaysia’s socioeconomic landscape for generations.

UMNO was officially founded on May 11, 1946, during the Third Malay Congress in Johor Bahru, under the leadership of its founding president, Dato’ Onn Ja’afar. Since its inception, UMNO has consistently focused on Malay nationalist ideology as its political agenda. However, UMNO has still been unable to go beyond Malaysia’s borders to fight for Malays’ survival abroad. This is in contrast to PAS, which has been popular amongst the Islamists outside of Malaysia, as it has been participating in many meetings and assemblies outside of Malaysia, promoting the culture of “struggle” against the “Western hegemony and imperialism.” One of the most popular ambitions of PAS is to liberate the State of Palestine from the occupation of Zionists. As a result, PAS, in comparison to UMNO, is seen as a more genuine fighter for the whole Muslim Ummah; at least, that is the perception of many Muslims in Malaysia and beyond, in general.

As the founding coalition, UMNO, MCA, and MIC under BN have not only upheld Malaysia’s capitalist foundations but also propelled the nation into the modern era. BN’s track record includes nurturing government-linked companies (GLCs), empowering private businesses, and producing corporate titans. Their leadership has overseen at least 50 major national projects—KLIA, the PLUS Highway, Putrajaya, Kenyir Dam, Penang Bridge, KLCC, Multimedia Super Corridor (MSC), KL Tower, Komuter, LRT, MRT, the SMART Tunnel, and the East Coast Expressway, to name just a few. However, the “capitalist-nationalist” approach that defined 1960s Malaysia and beyond is now tested by a new generation drawn to ideals of socialism, justice, and liberalism. Even as UMNO championed the NEP’s social justice for Malays and Bumiputeras, its vision was never about total liberalism or unbridled freedom—the middle path remains its hallmark.

On the far left, you will see the type of Malays who support PKR, the newest multiracial, Malay-dominated party which was formed originally to fight for the freedom of the former Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim (DSAI, now PMX), who was sacked from both UMNO and the government ministerial post in 1998 due to multiple charges. He and his supporters claim these charges were politically motivated, which led to the “Reformasi” movement. I remember that when these episodes unfolded, I was still studying engineering in Japan, analyzing the impact on the Malaysian economy as a whole, but more importantly, on the Malays.

Soon after DSAI was sent to prison, his family and supporters formed a political party, “Parti Keadilan Nasional” (National Justice Party) on April 4, 1999. However, it officially took its current identity and name on August 3, 2003, following a strategic merger between “Parti Keadilan” and the historic, left-leaning Malaysian People’s Party (PRM). Since then until recently, PKR has struggled to build a support base in the country, as BN has continued to lead and champion the cause of most Malaysians.

PKR is often compared to another multiracial party dominated by non-Malays and non-Bumiputera: the Democratic Action Party (DAP), a splinter of the People’s Action Party (PAP), a Singapore-based party. But DAP seems unable to win support from Malays, let alone hard-core Malay Muslims in Malay heartlands such as Kelantan, Terengganu, and Kedah. It is natural for both parties to work together to win the hearts of many Malaysians who want a multiracial Malaysia, even though the country’s DNA and system do not support that goal. It is like trying to run a diesel-engine truck on hydrogen fuel and complaining that the truck does not move along.

Knowing that Malay votes are crucial for PKR to come to power, they worked with PAS, Bersatu (another splinter party from UMNO), and many others to topple BN’s dominance, which they did for the first time in 2018, thanks to the genius of Tun Dr. Mahathir (TDM), who wanted to save this country from “foreign scammers,” but at the same time, protect the ideology of Malay-supremacy government in place through Bersatu (Parti Peribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM)). It was almost like a crusade against the “middle ground” dominance, driven by a combination of forces from the far left and far right. The fuel for this crusade, which they won in 2018, was the “corruption scandals,” which originally began in the context of the financial crisis in 1998. At the time, TDM was the so-called “culprit” for everything wrong with the country, but, ironically, most non-Malays then sided with Tun, voted for BN, and helped maintain BN’s dominance. In fact, during those years, PKR was seen as aligning closely with DAP and PAS (despite their extreme ideological contrasts). They used that platform for a long time to win critical states such as Selangor (PKR), Penang (DAP) and Kelantan (PAS) as bases for their longer-term dreams at the national level.

Today, Malaysia stands at a crossroads. Dato’ Seri Anwar Ibrahim—now known as PMX—occupies the highest office, acting as both the prime minister and finance minister, with near-unrivaled authority. He has convinced many in his base that he is the “cleanest among them all,” a reformer beyond reproach. I have witnessed, from my own journey, how his reputation resonates differently across the spectrum: reformists from Islamist backgrounds praise him as a champion of Islam, while liberal supporters laud his advocacy for human rights and inclusion, even citing his openness to the LGBTQ community. This duality is striking—at once seen as both a staunch Islamist and a liberal reformer, PMX embodies the contradictions of our era.

Yet, beneath the surface, Malaysia faces mounting challenges. National debt has ballooned from RM680 billion in 2017/18 to an eye-watering RM1.5 trillion. The influx of undocumented migrants, low-wage foreign laborers, refugees, and overstaying tourists now numbers around 3.5 million. Despite claims by the MADANI government of fresh opportunities for graduates, the reality is that more Malaysians are taking up gig work—driving for GRAB, delivering food, and competing with migrants for odd jobs. Many have fallen prey to overseas job scams, lured by syndicates to Cambodia, Thailand, and Myanmar. And the shadow of the 1MDB scandal lingers, with the infamous Jho Low, “The Bear,” still at large, evading Malaysian authorities. These are not just statistics—they are the lived experience of our people today, and they demand real solutions.

What have Malays and Malaysians done so far to help propel their future forward?

Some politicians say Malaysia will go bankrupt and down the drain if UMNO-BN rules the country, because they have painted UMNO-BN as corrupt with the term “sakau,” despite vague targets. We all know nobody is immune from the term “sakau,” yet it has been successfully linked to a single Malay-based party in Malaysia. If it is true, meaning that all of the Prime Ministers of Malaysia, regardless of which party they became Prime Minister from, still originated from UMNO’s DNA, the very “sakau” party they claimed to be fighting against. It is not too harsh to say that even PMX, who claims to be the cleanest among them all, also came from the very “dirty party” he now opposes, despite working together in a unity government after the 15th General Election.

I must say that the obligation to fight corruption remains the most critical duty of all leaders, especially the Suruhanjaya Pencegahan Rasuah Malaysia (SPRM), which is tasked with tackling this problem at its core. Yet, the culture in Malaysia is dependent mostly on whether the matter benefits those who are walking in the corridors of power, politically, as they intend to either remain in power for the longest possible time, or win the election and use whatever necessary strategies to tarnish the Malay-based party that is driving the country at the helm.

Since Malaysians will face the task of choosing between these three major Malay-based parties, we need to ask ourselves why we need to choose any of them, if we have to.

PAS is the only party that has never been at the helm. Its leaders have already been given the chance to lead Malay-dominated states such as Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah, and Perlis. But these states are not close to leading a multiracial country like Malaysia. Therefore, it remains a daunting task for PAS to lead while maintaining some of its major manifestos since its inception, such as implementing Sharia Law. Even if it is willing to change, international investors may have different expectations. If they hesitate or invest elsewhere, market participants will follow suit and pull their money out of the country.

PKR, on the other hand, has the most non-Malay votes within its safe deposits. Strongholds such as Penang and Selangor show strong support from Chinese and Indian voters. Despite this, they have lost touch with the grassroots in Sabah and Sarawak because locals distrust them and because locally led parties (Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS), or Warisan) are growing in popularity. As such, PKR is relying heavily on the support of the smaller chunk of educated or disgruntled Malays who prefer to choose socialism and liberalism over nationalism or Islamism. Interestingly, the majority of Malays prefer to choose either nationalism or Islamism over liberalism, pluralism, or socialism.

As a result, UMNO’s fate remains largely dependent on its ability to maneuver between working with PAS or PKR, as it has been defeated by both when they were working together against it. Since the attack by both PKR and PAS before was too harsh and extreme, UMNO needs more time to revive itself, especially when a very small issue about the pardon of DS Najib Razak, former Prime Minister, who has been given the right to be arrested at his residence, has sparked the anger of people, mostly from the bench of PKR and its supporters within the Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition. Netizens who support PH and PKR are working tirelessly to continue tarnishing the image of UMNO, making it the most hated Malay party on earth, based on the comments from netizens (and the bots).

But thanks to the emergence of Facebook, comments from real account holders show that UMNO-BN’s popularity has gained some traction. This is due to the smart insights from its leadership to work closely with PAS during the recent state elections in Johor and Negeri Sembilan, where the party has achieved its target to win the election and be at the helm. Despite persistent challenges in Negeri Sembilan, the party is doing extremely well. It has gained additional support, with UMNO membership surging to more than 50,000 in recent months. This has made other newer Malay nationalist parties, such as Bersatu and Wawasan, mere passengers or onlookers.

Since PMX, at the age of 78, still wants to continue his leadership as the Prime Minister after the GE16, it seems that it is highly likely that PKR will be working with another Malay-based party to contest in Malay-dominated seats such as in Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah, Perlis, Negeri Sembilan, Pahang, Perak, and Johor. It is reported today that PKR is negotiating with Bersatu to replace UMNO as the partner moving forward. It is like the GE14 model all over again.

However, in GE16, the contest is no longer about giving PMX a chance to lead this country. It is a contest of brutal truth: whether PH has shown its credibility as a party that can fulfill its supporters’ dreams. They have many dreams, but the most important is a free and fair “Malaysian Malaysia” where all races can access opportunities by merit, without bias. This is the main foundation of the support PH has received all these years. It was, in fact, the mantra of PKR and DAP, but later, when PMX became the Prime Minister, PH changed its tune and became confused about its own political ideology. Most of the time, the Prime Minister is acting weirdly, more Islamic than PAS, or more Malay than UMNO. It is supposedly good in the eyes of PH’s Malay supporters, perhaps. But it will never change the fact that PMX has shown his supporters he is not consistent with the ideology he represents. What ideology is PKR really fighting for?

This is because PMX was supposed to be the Prime Minister from UMNO, if not for the fact that he was sacked and kicked out of the party in 1998. His mindset remains true to his DNA: he is Muslim and Malay first, before Malaysian. He openly admitted that he is true to his struggle, as he was with ABIM before and UMNO. The only thing he never gave in on was “fighting corruption,” saying he would fight until the end of time, with the slogan “lawan tetap lawan,” every time he insisted to his supporters that he remains committed to fighting corruption in the country.

This vague “sakau” slogan remains. We will never know who the remaining corruptors are in this country, because it does not make sense that only politicians in UMNO are corrupt, yet problems and issues persist. There are still loopholes, crimes, delays in project deliveries, and many other problems everywhere. So, what is the real truth when we decide who should be leading our country moving forward?

By 2035, we will not be so sure whether PMX will still be the Prime Minister of Malaysia. Still, he might believe he will remain to lead this country and wants to eradicate poverty and clean the government of all sorts of crooks and crimes, yet we know we are not all immortal. He insists on support as if his successor from PKR will be more capable than he is to lead this country and the nation in the future.

Yet, through the tides of change, ideology remains our nation’s only constant. The DNA of Malaysia must endure. The question is: do we want a liberal, pluralistic, anything-goes society, or an Islamist state—perhaps even an ‘Islamic Kingdom of Malaysia’? The answer is not simple, and perhaps it will never be. But let’s remember: principled leaders built this country under the banners of nationalism, democracy, and capitalism; for a reason. These founding ideals define Malaysia’s identity. Malays must continue to lead—not to exclude, but to protect the sanctity of Islam, the land, and the partnership with all races. Side by side, hand in hand, we must safeguard and develop this nation together. That is the spirit UMNO and BN have always stood for.

You may disagree with them, but UMNO and BN’s record of achievement over the past 80 years is undeniable. Even after setbacks and electoral losses, they have remained steadfast in their principles and sense of ‘amanah’—protecting the nation’s interests, serving citizens of all backgrounds, and, with honesty, prioritizing the wellbeing of Malays and Muslims. Their opponents, especially those outside Malaysia, often try to stir negativity and undermine BN’s honest ambition to build a truly developed Malaysia. But the struggle continues—both from within and beyond our borders.

As Malaysians prepare for GE16, I believe it is time to consider how BN should win the election. Should it partner with PAS or PKR? Or go solo? Please share your thoughts in the comments section.